Modeling NBA Offensive Efficiency Through the Implementation of Markov Chains

Robert David Craig Jr.
MASDS, 2026
SCHOENBERG, FREDERIC R.
Offensive efficiency in the NBA is examined by modeling possessions as sequences of actionsacross different areas of the court rather than focusing solely on final shot outcomes. A Markov chain framework is developed using possession-level data from the Oklahoma City Thunder during the 2025 NBA Finals, where transition probabilities are used to estimate expected values across court zones. Data consisted of more than 5,500 manually collected possession-level actions spanning the seven-game series. Results indicate meaningful differ- ences in efficiency across court locations. Additional differences in efficiency were observed when segmented by game outcome and possession length, while standard error estimates provided insight into the stability of the resulting estimates.
2026