Effects of Horizon and Overlapping Data on Linear Regression

Tianyi Xia
MS, 2019
Li, Jingyi
Market risk models often deal with risk measurement and modeling in a specific capital horizon, while model developers have to select an estimation horizon for the parameter estimation. The use of overlapping data may be a solution for the trade-off between better signal-to-noise ratio and the lower number of observations in the long-horizon data. We focus on the beta estimate in one-factor linear regression model. Three data generating process are considered in simulation: (1) independent identically distributed (iid) model, (2) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, (3) decomposition of stock price into a random walk and stationary components. If the daily data perfectly satisfy a linear model with iid error, estimate using daily data may be better than estimate using long-horizon overlapping data. For the general linear regression model, generalized least squares with longer horizon may produce better results since it takes into account the serial correlation in overlapping data.
2019