Application of Hidden Markov Models in Financial Time Series: Inspection of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
Minxuan Xu
MS, 2018
Zhou, Qing
In this thesis, we propose two Gaussian hidden Markov models: univariate Gaussian hidden Markov models with covariate and bivariate Gaussian hidden Markov models. After that they are applied to stock market returns to inspect the return-beta relationship stated in
the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The relationship is examined under 3 definitions of regimes: market regimes, idiosyncratic regimes and co-regimes. Results show that betas are larger under bullish market regime compared to bearish. Although no consistent patterns in beta are discovered under different idiosyncratic regimes and co-regimes, for each stock the betas do seem to vary considerably across regimes. Our model is also able to capture volatility clustering exhibited in return series.
the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The relationship is examined under 3 definitions of regimes: market regimes, idiosyncratic regimes and co-regimes. Results show that betas are larger under bullish market regime compared to bearish. Although no consistent patterns in beta are discovered under different idiosyncratic regimes and co-regimes, for each stock the betas do seem to vary considerably across regimes. Our model is also able to capture volatility clustering exhibited in return series.
2018