An Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Long-term Interest Rates

Kimberly B. Duke
M.S., 2005
Advisor: Yingnian Wu

This analysis suggests strongly that the primary influence on long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The results of this analysis were generally consistent with the standard view that short-term rates have a significant influence on long-term rates. However, the results of this study also suggested that the time horizon of investors, traders and other market participants may be shorter term than that suggested in some of the academic literature. Taken as a whole, the data examined in this paper suggest that there is a highly uniform pattern between short- and long-term interest rates in general. The trends, the direction of short-term movements, and the pattern of change in volatility of interest rates across various maturities have been highly systematic over the past half-century. The data do not eliminate the possibility that expectations influence long-term interest rates. However, they do suggest that market participants may concentrate more on other factors, or that the time horizon of the markets may not be as long as is often assumed. Finally, the analysis presented in this piece suggests that the current level of long-term interest is not out of line with that of short-term interest rates based on historical experience.
2005